August 16, 2026: A year of unrelenting Ukrainian air attacks, especially on air defense systems, has left Russian air Defenses in disarray and short of missiles. Worse, many soldiers and sailors have been transferred from support or technical jobs to infantry duty in Ukraine. At this point, Russia fears Ukraine will launch drone attacks on one of its primary strategic weapons, SSBN nuclear submarines carrying ballistic missiles.

The White Sea in Russia’s extreme northwest is a large 90,000 square kilometer body of seawater with an average depth of sixty meters. It is the southern inlet of the Barents Sea surrounded by Karelia to the west, the Kola Peninsula to the north, and the Kanin Peninsula to the northeast. The entire White Sea is under Russian sovereignty and is considered part of Russia's internal waters. This makes the White Sea ideal for conducting sea trials for new nuclear submarines, such as the fifth Yasen-class submarine, Arkhangelsk. This submarine was built at the Sevmash shipyard near the port city of Severodvinsk on the White Sea. It is the only shipyard in Russia that builds nuclear-powered submarines. Yasen-class SSNs are nuclear-powered attack submarines, the Russian answer to the American Virginia-class. The Virginias are a more recent design, while the Yasen is a late Cold War effort that had some tech upgrades in the two decades it took to build the first one. This Yasen entered service in 2014, followed by a second and third in 2021. The fourth Yasen entered service in 2023 and the fifth one in 2025.

With five Yasens completed, seven more are still on the way, if the Russian shipbuilding budget can pay for them. Each Yasen costs over $700 million. The first Yasen entered service in 2017; currently, only five have been completed, and seven more are being built. That’s all Russia can afford. The first American Virginia Class SSN entered service in 2004. So far, 24 have been built, with 10 more under construction, and plans to eventually have 66 in the 2030s. Each Virginia costs $1.8 billion.

The 13,800-ton Yasens were built after the Cold War but are updated Cold War-era designs armed with Kalibr anti-ship or cruise missiles and ten torpedo tubes (eight 650mm and two 533mm). What Russia has not been able to do is keep up with the pace of silencing and detection (sensor) tech. American sub commanders aren't overconfident about all this, but base their assessments on growing opportunities for the quieter American SSNs, especially the Virginias, to detect a Russian SSN (or diesel-electric boat) and stalk it for days or weeks without ever being discovered.

This was a Cold War practice, and the U.S. Navy discovered in the 1980s that the latest Russian SSNs were much quieter. But there are few of them, and now improved American sensors make them easier to detect. The U.S. was apparently able to detect and stalk the Yasen, getting a good sense of how much quieter it is, but apparently not enough to avoid detection by the Virginias. As improved as Yasen is, it had lots of problems getting into service.

Russian submarine building has been on life support since the Cold War ended in 1991. Many subs under construction at the end of the Cold War were canceled, and the few which avoided it spent a decade or more waiting for enough money to resume construction. The first Yasen crew was formed in 2007 and spent years training and waiting. The crew of 85 finally got their new boat in 2014, after record delays and time spent in the shipyard getting tweaked. Subsequent Yasens took less time to complete, but only five are in service, compared to 22 American Virginias. The Virginias have a crew of 135. Russian nuclear subs have always relied more on automation, so they can have smaller crews.

Another difference between Virginia Class SSNs and the new Russian submarines is that the Yasens are SSGNs, meaning they carry more missiles launched from their larger 650mm torpedo tubes. The Yasens are larger, displacing 13,800 tons submerged compared to 7,800 tons for the Virginias, except for the last ten Block 5 boats, which will each displace 10,200 tons. The Block 5 Virginias also carry more cruise missiles launched from twelve vertical tubes. The Yasens carry VLS tubes for 40 missiles and 24 torpedoes for their ten torpedo tubes.

Meanwhile, Russian submarine personnel near the White Sea scan the sky for swarms of Ukrainian drones that many believe will come eventually.